Answers Sheet
Lecture One: A Cosmic Perspective
1. What is the current best estimate of the age of our known Universe?
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A: The current best estimate is 13.8 billion years. The Planck Collaboration puts the date at 13.813 billion years.
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2. What is the current best estimate of the age of the Earth?
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A: The best estimate is currently 4.53 billion years. This is consistent with current calculations of 11 to 13 billion years for the age of the Milky Way Galaxy (based on the stage of evolution of globular cluster stars).
3. Which spacecraft took the famous "Pale Blue Dot" photograph?
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A: NASA's Voyager 1 and you can read more about it here
4. In terms of human, animal and plant life on Earth, where does most of the action take place (altitude in meters)?
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A: For humans most live at sea level so 0m in altitude to about 3500m, think of Bolivia's capital La Paz. It is possible for humans to operate below sea level and above 3500m but it requires special equipment.
5. What do we mean by a "scientific theory"?
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A: A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world and universe that has been repeatedly tested and corroborated in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results. And it is NOT just someone's wild guess.
Lecture One: A Cosmic Perspective
1. What is the current best estimate of the age of our known Universe?
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A: The current best estimate is 13.8 billion years. The Planck Collaboration puts the date at 13.813 billion years.
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2. What is the current best estimate of the age of the Earth?
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A: The best estimate is currently 4.53 billion years. This is consistent with current calculations of 11 to 13 billion years for the age of the Milky Way Galaxy (based on the stage of evolution of globular cluster stars).
3. Which spacecraft took the famous "Pale Blue Dot" photograph?
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A: NASA's Voyager 1 and you can read more about it here
4. In terms of human, animal and plant life on Earth, where does most of the action take place (altitude in meters)?
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A: For humans most live at sea level so 0m in altitude to about 3500m, think of Bolivia's capital La Paz. It is possible for humans to operate below sea level and above 3500m but it requires special equipment.
5. What do we mean by a "scientific theory"?
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A: A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world and universe that has been repeatedly tested and corroborated in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results. And it is NOT just someone's wild guess.
Lecture Two: What is Science?
1. What do we use to determine facts of our reality?
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A: We use the scientific method. You can break it down into individual segments but essentially all fall under the umbrella term scientific method.
2. Which is the current prevailing theory about the motion of astral bodies?
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A: Heliocentrism, it has been adopted for about 500 years as of 2022. In this model the Earth and other planets revolve around the Sun. This can almost certainly be extrapolated to other Solar Systems.
3. What is thought to be at the very center of a Black Hole?
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A: A gravitational singularity, spacetime singularity or simply singularity is a condition in which gravity is so intense that spacetime itself breaks down catastrophically. As such, a singularity is by definition no longer part of the regular spacetime and cannot be determined by "where" or "when".
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4. What is the best way of going about convincing someone of a fact?
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A: This is a tricky question with no single answer. Psychological research is ongoing and some professionals suggest the inoculation method where you feed people a portion of misinformation and then tell them the actual facts that debunk it. Sadly this is a slow process but that doesn't mean we should throw our hands in the air and wave the white flag. I would say presenting the data is still the best way to convince someone.
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5. Is the Oregon Petition the ultimate debunking of Climate Change?
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A: Absolutely not. The Oregon Petition was a joke when it was conceived and it's a joke now. In no way is it evidence for anything other than a paper with some signatures. Remember that out of the 30k+ signatures, only a handful identified themselves as Climatologists. And again we don't know if they really are or not, we also have no information as to their motivation.
Lecture Three: Brief History of CC
1. Do most common vaccines demonstrably work?
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A: Vaccines demonstrably work. There are people who point out well vaccine X is only 98% effective (as if that's bad) and then they proceed to discredit the whole thing. Of course you should always check with a doctor if a vaccine is right for you. Side effects do happen (as with any medicine) and you should be aware of them.
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2. Is it fair when a Climate Scientist and denier are invited on a TV show or podcast?
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A: The current scientific consensus is at least 97% of Climatologists agree that Climate Change is happening and Man is making things worse. So when a news segment portrays it as a 50/50 issue, they are doing a massive disservice to the discourse. Plus also bear in mind that more often than not, the denier is a shill for the fossil fuel industry.
3. While people have been able to know the weather over generations, when did we actually start to analyze and understand the data? (Hint: think about when Joseph Fourier elaborated on the greenhouse effect as of 2021)
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A: Joseph Fourier is credited with the Greenhouse theory, while Manabe & Weatherald mapped the global climate model in 1967. But if you're talking about climate models then these typically get going in the 1990s.
4. What do we mean by resolution when it comes to climate models?
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A: Think of a LEGO block, the smaller it is, the more accuracy you have and the less approximations you have to do. So the resolution is simply the size of a sample area of the world. The content of the samples has also evolved over the past decades.
5. What can we use to obtain information on climatic conditions in the past?
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A: Typically if you watch some environmental show on TV, they go after ice cores and also tree rings. But there are other sources of information including corals and pollen. Other proxies can for example be historic grape harvest dates as was done in France.
Lecture Four:
Greenhouse Gases
1.In terms of emissions share, which greenhouse gas is currently the main culprit?
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A: In terms of percentage, definitely CO2 leads the pack by quite a lot! Yes CO2 is not as potent as say Methane but there's a lot more of it in the atmosphere as of early 2022.
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2. Where do methane emissions primarily come from?
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A: Animal farming and farming with some extra in form of leaks etc...
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3. What is (as of Fall 2021) the CO2 concentration in our atmosphere in ppm?
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A: I don't have the precise chart in front of me right now but it's around 420ppm. Remember that natural peaks generally go to 300, we're at 420, this is uncharted territory as far as human life is concerned.
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4. Which continent (as of Fall 2021) emits the most carbon dioxide?
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A: Asia with China leading the pack. It must be noted here however that China is currently the manufacturing capital of the world so it is unfair to pin all the emissions on China. We all need to take responsibility for emissions if we buy something from another nation.
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5. Based on the Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics in Japan, what is the global carbon dioxide emissions share of the G20 nations?
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A: About 78%, so more than 3/4, which is mad. As of 2022, there are 194 countries in the world, granted some of these are absolutely tiny with the smallest of carbon footprints but also they tend to suffer the most, precisely because they are tiny nations with very limited land, limited resources, if it's an island-state then it is likely going under water as we speak.
Lecture Five:
Natural Disasters and CC
1. Is Climate Change responsible for all natural disasters?
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A: No, it depends on the disaster. For example there is no evidence that Climate Change causes earthquakes or volcanic eruptions. Climate Change does however make certain things worse, such as wildfires, flooding etc...
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2. Which natural disaster(s) can Climate Change make worse?
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A: Wildfires, flooding, impact of tsunamis to name a few.
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3. What is coral bleaching?
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A: Increased greenhouse gases from activities like deforestation, and the burning of fossil fuels for heat and energy, cause ocean temperatures to rise, change storm patterns, and contribute to sea level rise. These changes lead to more coral bleaching events, increased storm destruction, and more.
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4. How much of Earth's water is fresh water?
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A: The total volume of water on Earth is estimated at 1.386 billion km³ (333 million cubic miles), with 97.5% being salt water and 2.5% being fresh water. Of the fresh water, only 0.3% is in liquid form on the surface.
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5. In Climate Change science, what do we mean by "proxies"?
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A: Proxies are things like tree rings, ice cores. They give us knowledge far beyond one person's lifetime. It's not a perfect source of information but it's pretty accurate especially when you combine them.
Lecture Six:
A Recap
There is no quiz for this lecture.
Lecture Seven:
The Carbon Cycle
1. When we talk about the Carbon Cycle, what or who is the latest big addition to emissions?
A: Definitely humans. Dinosaurs and whatnot did not drive around in polluting cars, trucks and airplanes, they didn't have factories. We do. And just as world population has exploded after WW2, so did emissions.
2. What do we mean by a "carbon sink"?
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A: A carbon sink is any reservoir, natural or otherwise, that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical compound for an indefinite period and thereby lowers the concentration of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. But when forests are burned, they release all that trapped CO2 back into the atmosphere!
3. In the majority of cases, who has a larger carbon footprint?
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A: The people who consume the most have a larger carbon footprint. If you are poor, you may contribute to the crisis in other ways, i.e. soil erosion but overall though you'd make only a tiny difference. In contrast, someone living a lavish lifestyle will use many appliances, drive car(s) etc... all huge emitters of CO2.
4. What is the main motive behind mass deforestation?
A: Short-term profits mainly. In Indonesia large parts of rainforest have already been destroyed to make way for Palm Oil trees. In Brazil it's more to make space for more farmland but again it's all very reckless and dangerous.
5. How can we curb the burning of fossil fuels?
A: It depends, are you poor or are you well-off? If you are poor you are unlikely to contribute much to the crisis + you can't afford most of the solutions on the market. If you CAN afford it, there are more energy efficient appliances, electric cars, LED light bulbs etc... All of these are great but ultimately we have to take on the powerful Fossil Fuel Lobby and tell it enough is enough, we want clean renewable energy built to last.
Lecture Eight:
The Greenhouse Effect
1. Who is widely credited for developing the Greenhouse effect theory?
In a nutshell, what is the Greenhouse effect?
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A: French scientist Jean-Baptiste Joseph Fourier in the 1820s'.
2. How many mass extinction events on the Earth have there been so far (as of 2021)?
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A: To date, there have been five mass extinction events on the Earth due to varying causes. The sixth one may well be already happening.
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3. Which of these are greenhouse gases?
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A: Was going to be a multiple choice question. Basically remember that molecules vibrate and if that happens then the gas is a greenhouse gas, examples: carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor.
4. How many years do Carbon Dioxide particles stay in the atmosphere?
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A: According to NASA, anywhere between 300-1000 years. So as of 2022, all we are currently adding to all the budget emitted during the Industrial Revolution.
Which protein source contributes the least emissions in total?
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A: I really wanted to ask specifically about meat and in that respect, it's chicken but protein sources in general will include things like tofu, peas, nuts.
Lecture Nine
Psychology
Behind CC
1. According to the 2019 Yale study, what is the percentage of Americans who believe in the scientific consensus on Climate Change?
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A: According to their survey it's 52%. I believe the figure is slightly higher now but we're still FAR FAR away from the scientific consensus, which is often cited as between 97-100%.
2. According to the 2019 Yale study, what is the percentage of Americans who believe Climate Change will harm them personally?
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A: According to their survey it's 42% but I think this stems from the fact that most people don't think two steps ahead, they only look at one threat for example drought and don't consider all the other potential hazards. It's also interesting to note that the people who said the threat is higher mainly come from the South while the rest of the nation essentially dismisses it.
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3. In Psychology, what is selective exposure?
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A: According to Wikipedia: "Selective exposure is a theory within the practice of psychology, often used in media and communication research, that historically refers to individuals' tendency to favor information which reinforces their pre-existing views while avoiding contradictory information"
4. Motivated reasoning appeals to our (pick answer) side?
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A: According to Wikipedia: "Motivated reasoning is the phenomenon in cognitive science and social psychology in which emotional biases lead to justifications or decisions based on their desirability rather than an accurate reflection of the evidence". In short, it appeals to our emotions.
Lecture Ten
Public
Perception
1. According to Center for Climate Change Communication, what is the percentage of people who say we can solve the problem successfully?
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A: Only about 5%, which just shows the enormity of the task ahead. But I'd like to add that we don't have an eternity to think about it. Climate Change is picking up pace rapidly and we have to act now.
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2. True or False, most activists know about the issue, recognize the human factor and think the problem is solvable?
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A: I think the question is a bit ambiguous. First of all not all activists know all the ins and outs of Climate Change. They may know one or two things and when they speak in public, they can only refer to certain narrow knowledge. Among the people who know about the topic, recognize the risk, understand it's man-made and is solvable then 40% of them happen to be activists.
3. True or False, oceans are becoming more acidic?
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A: True and for more you can go here: https://oceanacidification.noaa.gov/OurChangingOcean.aspx
4. True or False, volcanic eruptions are on the rise due to Climate Change?
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A: False. But I have read somewhere that if say all the oceans evaporate then plate tectonics would cease.
"In about one billion years, the solar luminosity will be 10% higher than at present. This will cause the atmosphere to become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans. As a likely consequence, plate tectonics will come to an end, and with them the entire carbon cycle." from Wikipedia.
5. In unprompted questions, what is the public's top quoted risk factor?
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A: Most people quoted Lung Cancer, which is quite interesting since I would have quoted other things first, like heat strokes and hunger but in unprompted questions, these were very low on the list.
6. Why are wildfires dangerous (apart from the obvious fire)?
A: They release all the CO2 trapped by the tree as well as particulate matter. You can read more on the latter here: https://www.epa.gov/wildfire-smoke-course/why-wildfire-smoke-health-concern
Lecture Twelve
The Scientific
Consensus
1. Previously, we talked about the public's perception of the scientific consensus but how high is it in reality and why are the regular people struggling to understand the topic?
A: It varies generally between 40-70%. In the USA, if you lean more Liberal then you will tend to agree with the Scientific Consensus. So 40-70% among the average people, compared to over 97%, which is the Scientific Consensus. The difference is called "The Consensus Gap".
2. Based on Australia's Bureau of Meterology, what can we say about the temperatures trend in Australia from 1980 to 2019?
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A: The trend is negative, some of the hottest years are in the past decade, i.e. 2010-2019. And this leads to reservoirs drying up, desertification as well as devastating wildfires.
3. How many of the alarmed people have trouble understanding news reports about global warming?
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A: About a quarter, which is worrying. I believe there's something deeper going on here, like the completion percentage on YouTube clips, it seems very few are watching from beginning to end, this can also be explained by some mental disorders. Usually the news you get on Climate Change on MSM is very diluted and dumbed down for the average viewer so it's worrying that 25% of the Alarmed find it difficult.
4. Which category of people has the biggest percentage of those who find news reports on global warming hard to understand?
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A: The Disengaged. These are generally people who sit on the fence, don't think much about the issue, don't think it is a threat to them personally. And yet this block represents a huge opportunity for communication because you don't really need to talk to the Alarmed, they are already on board and vice-versa you will have more luck talking to a wall than to the Dismissive. It's those people in the middle that we should target the most.
Lecture Thirteen
Future
Projections
1. What can we say about the RCP index?
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A: Basically the higher it is, the worst it is for everything on Earth. Most of the time it's used as a quick reference term so we can imagine the situation. But one important thing is even with the low RCP, we're still talking about some heating.
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2. By how much have the animal populations decreased since 1970?
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A: By about 68%, which is pretty shocking. It definitely puts us on track for another mass extinction event since the rate is unsustainable.
3. Which region has seen the biggest decrease in wildlife populations?
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A: Latin America and the Caribbean.
4. If all of the Greenland ice sheet melts, by how many meters will the sea levels rise?
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A: Globally, we would be talking about 7.2 meters, not feet, meters.
5. How much heat content is added to the ocean every second for the past 25 years in terms of Hiroshima bombs' worth of energy?
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A: About 5 Hiroshima bombs' worth of heat content every second.
6. What will likely happen if we do absolutely nothing about Climate Change?
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A: A very grim fate. More specifically a much warmer world where people would suffer a lot more than now. This would also be catastrophic for animal populations. Basically for 150 years or so, Man has taken things like air and water for granted, we've polluted heavily very carelessly and with seemingly no consequences. Now we have the scientific evidence that shows that there are consequences and that we need to do something urgently.
Lecture Fourteen
Guide to
Inaction
1. If I'm a very rich individual interested in short terms profits and with a great deal of influence in world affairs, I am interested in protecting the environment, True or False?
A: In most cases, this is definitely false. The environment is usually pretty far down the list of concerns people have and that in itself is tragic.
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2. True or False, poor people have a big say in world affairs?
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A: False. The poor always get the rough end of the stick, they often don't have a voice in their local communities and they definitely don't have a voice in world affairs.
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3. True or False, if we don't invest in Green tech now, then Climate Change costs will spiral out of control later?
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A: True. Think of a PC. Do you wait until every single component is broken or do you replace them as they go? The smarter thing is the latter. The problem with the environment is if we don't invest now then the costs are prohibitively high later on because of the adverse effects of Climate Change.
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4. True or False, most politicians are taking Climate Change seriously?
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A: I would say as the question is stated then false. Sure, some countries are better than others but we're talking as a whole then no, not enough action is taken. Just a quick example in the US, we have Joe Manchin who's blocking green bills. Why? Because he owns coal plants in Virginia. He's not going to hurt his own wallet.
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5. Why are Climate Change threats not taken seriously?
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A: Largely because we are conditioned to think about day to day routine, i.e. going to work, cooking, washing, sleeping. Rinse and repeat. Anything outside of that requires extra effort and most people are simply not willing to put any in. Of course, whether or not the mob "cancels" Climate Change, it doesn't magically make it go away. You may not really feel the impact just yet but give it time...
Lecture Fifteen
What Can
We Do?
1. Global greenhouse gas emissions by sector, which is the largest sector?
A: Energy is by far the largest sector (about 75%) and it includes energy use in buildings, transportation and energy use in industry.
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2. The Greenland ice sheet is...?
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A: Rapidly melting as are all glaciers really. Yes I know that sometimes there is ice growth one year but then you get 10 years of melt in a row. Anyway, if you were to draw a trend line, it would most certainly be going down, i.e. the ice is melting.
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3. When would most people switch to using solar energy instead of fossil fuels?
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A: People generally think with their wallets. Basically you have to picture two curves, 1. the cost of using fossil fuels is rising, 2. the cost of green energy is dropping. When they eventually cross is the time people will switch. Ideally of course it should happen sooner but that's also an elitist thing to say when I know very well that a few dollars a month make a lot of difference to working people, especially those working paycheck to paycheck.
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4. As an ordinary person I have...?
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A: You have the ability to vote, you have the ability to boycott products, boycott companies etc... this is a power we often either take for granted or don't exercise. Also it's important to note that one vote may not lead to the desired change so we have to keep voting and pushing for the things we want. We may not get them this cycle but maybe the next.
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5. What's the best way to tackle Climate Change?
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A: It depends who you ask. Did you know that "Carbon Footprint" was actually a term coined by BP, oh yes the very same British Petroleum. This is just an attempt to put all the blame on you, while absolving themselves of it. But in fairness, forget the slogan for a moment, personal responsibility IS indeed important and we should all consume less. However, we mustn't forget the elephant in the room and these are the large polluters out there. But bear in mind that most likely they are trying to satisfy a huge demand and we must find a way to curb that demand, i.e. once again consuming less.
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6. Why is understanding logical fallacies important?
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A: First of all, you can find on the Internet a full and growing list of all logical fallacies. I urge everyone to seek them out. This is NOT taught at school so you have to educate yourselves. I believe it's taught in Philosophy classes but even then they probably only scratch the surface. It's essential to know and understand logical fallacies in order to understand what tactic(s) someone uses to manipulate you or control the way you vote etc... it's absolutely essential everyone thinks rationally and logically as opposed to purely emotionally.